The chance of winning a UK prize competition is unusually easy to work out, because the operator tells you most of what you need: how many tickets exist and, often, how many have gone. The harder question is whether a ticket is worth its price, and that needs one more figure, the value of the prize. This guide covers both.
The ticket cap and the tickets sold
The ticket cap (sometimes "max entries") is the most tickets that will ever be sold. It sets your worst case: if the draw sells out, one ticket is a 1 in cap chance of the main prize. A cap of 2,000 means one ticket can never be worse than 1 in 2,000.
The tickets sold, or % sold, tell you how far through the cap the draw is right now. That matters because not every draw sells out. If the operator draws on the closing date from the tickets actually sold, the real pool is smaller than the cap, and your chance per ticket is better than the worst case. A 5,000 cap at 40% sold is about 2,000 tickets so far.
What an undersold draw does depends on the terms: draw anyway, extend, swap to a cash prize or cancel. We go through each one in what happens when a competition doesn't sell out. Until the draw closes, assume the worst case and treat anything better as a bonus.
Worked examples
These are invented draws, chosen to show how the figures relate. Odds are for one ticket.
| Draw | Cap | Sold at close | Odds at sell-out | Odds if drawn as sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small tech draw | 999 | 999 (sold out) | 1 in 999 | 1 in 999 |
| Watch draw | 4,000 | 2,500 | 1 in 4,000 | 1 in 2,500 |
| Car draw | 30,000 | 21,000 | 1 in 30,000 | 1 in 21,000 |
| Large cash draw | 150,000 | 150,000 (sold out) | 1 in 150,000 | 1 in 150,000 |
Our odds calculator does the division for you, as a "1 in N" figure and a percentage.
What buying more tickets does
Each extra ticket adds the same slice of chance, so your odds rise in proportion: five tickets in a 1,000-ticket draw is a 1 in 200 chance. Your cost rises in exactly the same proportion. Buying more tickets changes how likely you are to win this one draw; it does not make each pound you spend work any harder.
Most operators also set a per-person limit, the most tickets one entrant can buy. It stops one person holding most of a small draw, and it caps how far you can push your own odds even if you wanted to. If you are entering several draws at once, the multi-competition odds calculator works out your chance of winning at least one, which is not the same as adding the individual chances together.
Odds are not the same as value
Short odds on a small prize can be a worse deal than long odds on a big one. To compare draws fairly you need the price of a ticket and what the prize is worth. The cash alternative is usually the most honest figure for the second part, for reasons covered in prize or cash alternative.
Two simple measures help:
- Value per £1: prize value ÷ (cap × ticket price). This is how much prize there is for every pound the operator takes if the draw sells out. A £2,000 cash alternative on a 2,000-ticket draw at £1.50 is £2,000 ÷ £3,000, about 0.67 of prize per £1. A £20,000 cash alternative on a 40,000-ticket draw at 49p is £20,000 ÷ £19,600, about 1.02. The second draw has twenty times longer odds and better value.
- Expected value per ticket: (prize value ÷ cap) minus the ticket price. For the first draw that is £1.00 minus £1.50, so minus 50p. For the second it is 50p minus 49p, about plus 1p. Most draws come out negative, because the operator keeps a margin.
Neither figure predicts what you will win. They are for comparing one draw with another. The expected value calculator runs the sums, and signed-in players see an expected value figure on competition cards and draw pages, part of a free account. That figure also counts any unclaimed instant wins, which the simple sums above leave out.
How this compares with the National Lottery
The chance of matching all six numbers for the Lotto jackpot is roughly 1 in 45 million per line. Most prize competitions have caps measured in thousands or tens of thousands, so the chance of winning the main prize with one ticket is far higher, and the prizes are correspondingly smaller. A small cap still means you will usually not win: a 1 in 1,000 chance means losing 999 times out of 1,000.
Finding draws by their odds here
Every listing shows the ticket cap and, where the operator publishes it, how many have sold. A few shortcuts narrow the field:
- Best odds lists draws capped at 5,000 tickets or fewer, so the worst case is never longer than 1 in 5,000.
- Ultra low odds narrows that to draws capped at 1,000 tickets or fewer.
- On the competitions listing, the Fewest sold sort puts draws with the fewest tickets sold first. It ranks on today's sales, which can flatter a draw that has only just opened, so read it alongside the cap.
- The sell-through filter under Filters limits the list to draws measured at or below 25%, 50% or 75% sold. Draws we hold no sales reading for are left out of that filter, since we cannot say how far through they are.
Sold-out draws are hidden from listings by default, because you can no longer enter them. A tight cap tells you about your chance and nothing about the operator, so it is still worth checking the site before you pay.
Quick answers
How do I work out my odds in a competition?
Divide the number of tickets in the draw by the number you hold. At sell-out that is the ticket cap: one ticket in a 2,000-ticket draw is a 1 in 2,000 chance. If the operator draws before selling out, the real number is the tickets actually sold.
What does sell-through mean on a competition?
Sell-through is the share of the ticket cap that has been sold so far. A draw at 40% sold with a 5,000 cap has sold about 2,000 tickets.
Does buying more tickets improve my odds?
Yes, in proportion. Ten tickets in a 1,000-ticket draw is a 1 in 100 chance instead of 1 in 1,000, but it also costs ten times as much, so your expected return per pound stays the same.